Eskom load-shedding will triple
in 3 years – CSIR
South Africa should brace itself for exponential increases to load-shedding until 2022.
This is according to research conducted by Dr Jarrad Wright and Joanne Calitz of the CSIR, who were presenting their findings in a presentation entitled “Setting up for the 2020s: Addressing South Africa’s electricity crisis and getting ready for the next decade… and now COVID-19”.
Wright said that South Africans should expect heavy load-shedding to continue for at least two to three years – depending on the key decisions and actions taken by the relevant entities.
Not only will load-shedding continue over the next few years – it will get significantly worse.
According to the updated Energy Availability Factor (EAF) and demand forecast at which Wright and Calitz arrived, South Africa should expect over 4,500GWh of load-shedding in 2022, compared to the 1,352GWh the country suffered in 2019.
2019 saw the worst power cuts the country had ever experienced, with the country at one point reaching stage 6 load-shedding.
The updated forecast by the CSIR is drastically different to that which was originally provided in the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy’s (DMRE’s) Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019, which expected last year to comprise the peak of load-shedding in the country.